Iran Crisis: A Moment of Reckoning for European Aviation

The recent crisis in the Middle East has sharply highlighted the vulnerabilities of European aviation, particularly its heavy reliance on fossil fuels. With around 95% of the EU’s crude oil imported and a significant portion of jet fuel supply dependent on the Middle East—especially via the Strait of Hormuz—the sector is acutely exposed to geopolitical instability. This dependence has led to soaring airline ticket prices, flight cancellations, and operational disruptions such as rerouting to avoid volatile airspace, underscoring the fragility of current supply chains. Transport & Environment (T&E) emphasises that the root cause of these challenges is not climate regulations but the sector’s fossil fuel dependency. Despite some industry voices pushing to weaken the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) and ReFuelEU mandates in response to the crisis, T&E argues these frameworks are crucial for Europe’s energy independence. Weakening such legislation would only deepen vulnerability to future oil shocks, whereas maintaining and reinforcing these policies could foster resilience and reduce reliance on unstable foreign imports. The briefing also advocates for immediate and long-term measures to address the crisis and future-proof the aviation sector. Short-term demand-side interventions, such as curbing unnecessary flight growth, could provide quick relief by reducing oil consumption. Meanwhile, strengthening Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandates and reinvesting ETS revenues into SAF development and innovation are seen as strategic priorities to build domestic production capacity and decouple aviation from geopolitical risks. T&E’s recommendations urge the European Commission and Member States to resist calls for deregulation and instead use the current turmoil as a catalyst to accelerate the transition to cleaner, more secure energy sources. By embedding demand management into long-term policy frameworks and bolstering SAF support through initiatives like the AccelerateEU package, Europe can safeguard its aviation sector against future crises while advancing climate goals. This approach aims to ensure that the sector no longer grows in isolation from both environmental imperatives and geopolitical realities.