Intermediate & Degraded Land Crops No “Miracle” Solution for SAF, New Study Shows

A recent study commissioned by Transport & Environment (T&E) and conducted by Cerulogy reveals that crops grown on intermediate or severely degraded land are unlikely to provide a significant solution for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) in Europe. These crops, cultivated either between food harvest cycles or on poor-quality land, have been promoted as environmentally friendly alternatives for decarbonising the aviation sector. However, the research estimates that such crops could only meet around 4% of the EU’s bio-SAF demand by 2050, challenging the notion that they represent a scalable or “miracle” solution. The study highlights several limitations and risks associated with intermediate crops. While they theoretically avoid the need for new agricultural land, their environmental benefits are compromised if they interfere with food production cycles or require substantial fertiliser inputs. The potential land available for these crops in the EU is estimated at roughly 10 million hectares combined, which could produce up to 1 million tonnes of bio-SAF—enough to cover 40% of the EU’s 2030 bio-SAF target. Yet, scaling production sustainably remains problematic, as demonstrated by recent scrutiny of projects like Eni’s degraded land crop initiative. Cian Delaney, biofuels policy manager at T&E, emphasised the limited role these crops can play in aviation decarbonisation, warning that without robust safeguards, their expansion risks reigniting the “food versus fuel” conflicts that have previously hindered biofuel development. The report calls for strict regulatory frameworks to prevent unintended consequences such as additional land conversion or increased reliance on unverified imported feedstocks. T&E urges the European Commission to implement guidelines that ensure any use of these crops towards renewable energy targets is carefully controlled. Looking ahead, the study suggests that the aviation sector should prioritise more scalable and reliable green fuel solutions, such as synthetic fuels, over intermediate crop biofuels. While intermediate crops and domestic waste oils may contribute to meeting short-term 2030 SAF goals, their long-term potential is constrained by environmental, logistical, and policy challenges. The findings underscore the need for a cautious and strategic approach to biofuel feedstock development within Europe’s broader climate and energy transition plans.