Hydropower Generation Expected to Recover Despite Snow Drought in the West

U.S. hydropower generation is projected to recover modestly in 2026, increasing by 5% from the previous year to reach 259 billion kilowatt-hours (BkWh). Despite this improvement, output is expected to remain nearly 2% below the 10-year average, largely due to snow drought conditions affecting key western states. Hydropower will account for approximately 6% of the nation’s electricity generation, reflecting ongoing challenges linked to variable water supply influenced by seasonal precipitation and snowpack levels. The western United States, a critical region for hydropower, has experienced mostly normal overall precipitation but has been impacted by unusually warm winter temperatures, leading to early snowmelt and snow drought. A significant heatwave in March accelerated snowmelt particularly in California, the Southwest, and parts of the Northwest, reducing water availability for hydropower during the spring and summer months. This phenomenon underscores the complex relationship between soil moisture, snowpack preservation, and hydropower output, with the snowpack acting as a vital natural reservoir. In the Northwest, the Columbia River Basin remains a major hydropower hub, supplying electricity to over four million homes and influencing regional energy dynamics, including natural gas usage and electricity trade. Hydropower generation in this area is forecast to rise by 17% compared to 2025 but will still fall slightly short of the decade average. The unusually high generation seen in late 2025 and early 2026 was driven by atmospheric river events causing flooding, highlighting the variability in water supply that shapes hydropower capacity. California’s hydropower outlook is more mixed, with generation expected to decline by 6% from last year but still remain 15% above the 10-year average. Reservoir levels in the state’s major water storage facilities are currently above historical averages, providing some buffer against drought impacts. However, snowpack measurements in the Sierra Nevada are significantly below normal, with particularly low percentages in the northern and central regions. Early snowmelt due to warmer temperatures further complicates the water supply situation, posing challenges for sustained hydropower production despite favourable reservoir conditions. Overall, while hydropower generation in the western U.S. is set to improve in 2026, ongoing climate variability and snow drought conditions continue to pose risks to consistent output. These developments highlight the importance of integrated water and energy management strategies to mitigate the impacts of changing weather patterns on renewable energy resources. Monitoring by agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will remain crucial for forecasting and adapting to these evolving conditions.