Global Biofuel Demand Set to Grow by Nearly 70% as Food Prices Rise

Global demand for biofuels is projected to surge dramatically, with consumption expected to increase by 30% in 2026 and nearly 70% by 2030, according to a recent study by Transport & Environment (T&E). This sharp rise is driven by governments’ efforts to reduce reliance on high-priced oil through expanded biofuel blending mandates, especially following geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions in key oil-producing regions. However, this rapid expansion risks intensifying pressure on global food markets, as biofuel production competes directly with food crops for land and resources, pushing vegetable oil prices to new highs. The growing appetite for biofuels comes amid a backdrop of rising food commodity prices and tightening fertiliser supplies. Countries such as the US, Indonesia, and Thailand have accelerated biofuel targets in response to energy security concerns, while major exporters like Brazil and Indonesia have restricted exports of biofuel feedstocks to protect domestic supplies. T&E highlights that biofuel cultivation already consumes a significant share of global fertilisers—around 5%—despite providing only 4% of transport fuel, and any further increase could exacerbate shortages in a market heavily dependent on imports from Russia, China, and the Middle East. Kädi Ristkok, T&E’s energy and climate director, warns that expanding biofuels on a large scale could have devastating consequences for both food security and the environment. She emphasises that biofuels can only play a marginal role in the energy transition without triggering unintended harms, such as soaring food prices and ecosystem destruction. Ristkok advocates for governments to prioritise sustainable alternatives like electrification rather than relying on biofuels, which require vast tracts of agricultural land—potentially equivalent to the size of South Africa—to meet ambitious blending targets, risking deforestation and increased carbon emissions. The implications of this trend are far-reaching, particularly as global agricultural output faces constraints from fertiliser shortages and supply chain disruptions. The competition between food and fuel crops threatens to deplete food reserves and undermine global food security at a time when many regions are already vulnerable. T&E’s analysis urges policymakers to reconsider biofuel expansion strategies and focus on safeguarding food supplies, highlighting the urgent need to balance energy goals with environmental and social priorities in the face of a complex and interconnected crisis.