Electricity Generation from Solar Could Exceed Coal in ERCOT for the First Time in 2026

Electricity generation from utility-scale solar power in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is projected to surpass coal generation for the first time in 2026. According to the US Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, solar generation in ERCOT will reach approximately 78 billion kilowatt-hours (BkWh) in 2026, compared to 60 BkWh from coal. This milestone reflects the rapid growth of solar capacity in Texas, driven by increasing electricity demand and a shift away from coal-fired power. Solar’s share of ERCOT’s generation mix has grown significantly over recent years, rising from 4% to 12% between 2021 and 2025, while coal’s contribution has declined from 19% to 13%. Although natural gas remains the dominant source, accounting for around 44% of generation during this period, solar additions are expected to account for roughly 40% of the total US solar capacity growth in 2026, with Texas leading the way. Notably, the Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and Battery Energy Storage System, an 837 MW project, is anticipated to be the largest solar photovoltaic installation coming online in ERCOT next year. The transition is already underway on a monthly basis, with solar generation exceeding coal for the first time in March 2025 and maintaining that lead through to August. In 2026, solar is forecast to outpace coal generation from March until December, with coal regaining a slight edge only at the end of the year. By 2027, solar is expected to surpass coal generation every month except January and December, producing an estimated 99 BkWh annually compared to coal’s 66 BkWh. This shift is occurring amid rising electricity demand in ERCOT, driven by expanding industrial activity, including cryptocurrency mining, data centres, and oil and gas processing. The absence of plans for new coal plants signals a continued decline in coal’s role, while significant solar capacity additions are planned to meet growing energy needs sustainably. The ongoing expansion of renewable energy in Texas highlights the state’s pivotal role in the US energy transition.