150 New Power Plants: The Cost of Balancing the Grid If the EU Slashes EV Targets

Plans to weaken the European Union’s electric vehicle (EV) targets could significantly increase the cost and complexity of integrating renewable energy into the continent’s electricity grid. A recent study by Fraunhofer ISI for Transport & Environment (T&E) highlights that reducing the number of EVs on European roads would diminish the potential of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology, which allows EVs to store excess renewable energy and feed it back into the grid during peak demand. The study warns that fewer EVs would necessitate the construction of the equivalent of 150 additional power plants to balance the grid, underscoring the critical role EVs play in supporting the energy transition. The analysis reveals that if the EU scales back its car CO2 targets as demanded by the car industry lobby ACEA, there could be 49 million fewer EVs by 2040. This reduction would lead to a 37% decrease in new solar photovoltaic (PV) installations between 2025 and 2040, equating to 51 gigawatts less solar capacity. Without sufficient EV battery storage to absorb surplus wind and solar power, an estimated 6 terawatt-hours of clean energy would be wasted annually by 2040. The curtailed renewables would force the grid to rely more heavily on fossil fuel-based ‘peaker’ plants, increasing renewable energy curtailment by 25%. Geert Decock, electricity and grids manager at T&E, emphasised that EVs act as a “continent-sized sponge” for excess renewable energy, and weakening EV targets would undermine this vital function. The study also projects that the EU would need 13 gigawatts more backup capacity, equivalent to 150 additional peaker plants, to meet peak electricity demand without the buffering effect of EV batteries. Furthermore, grid infrastructure would require substantial upgrades, including thicker cables and more transformers, at an extra cost of €4 billion annually to handle higher loads. T&E advocates maintaining the current EU car CO2 standards, arguing that meeting these targets would save the bloc nearly €28 billion per year in fuel costs and facilitate a more cost-effective renewable energy rollout. However, the organisation also calls for regulatory measures to ensure all new EVs are equipped with interoperable, bidirectional chargers compatible with V2G technology by 2032. Decock highlighted that energy security concerns and the urgency of the green transition make preserving strong EV targets essential not only for decarbonising transport but also for enabling a resilient and sustainable electricity system.