Who could be the Isaac del Toro of this year's Giro d'Italia? There's one GC frontrunner, but there's plenty of chances for surprises too – Analysis

As the Giro d’Italia prepares to start, the race presents a unique dynamic: a clear general classification (GC) favourite in Jonas Vingegaard, yet an overall field marked by uncertainty and potential surprises. Vingegaard, riding for Visma-Lease a Bike, stands out as the rider most likely to claim the pink jersey in Rome, but beyond him, the list of contenders is less defined. The absence of notable riders such as João Almeida, Richard Carapaz, Simon Yates, and last year’s breakout star Isaac del Toro leaves the top positions open to interpretation, making it difficult to predict even the top five with confidence. The Giro’s inherent unpredictability adds to this uncertainty. Last year’s race saw del Toro, initially a domestique, unexpectedly don the leader’s jersey and nearly win, highlighting how pre-race favourites and strategies can quickly unravel. This year, the course lacks a gravel stage that caused crashes in previous editions, potentially favouring Vingegaard’s steady bid for victory. Nevertheless, the race’s early stages, starting in Bulgaria with unfamiliar roads and possible rain, could create chaos and opportunities for lesser-known riders to gain time, setting the tone for the rest of the race. Stage 7’s climb to Blockhaus is anticipated as a critical moment for GC contenders and opportunists alike. This iconic ascent, arriving at a pivotal point in the race, could allow an underestimated rider to seize the leader’s jersey and defend it through the subsequent stages, much like del Toro did last year. The stage represents a prime opportunity for a surprise contender to shake up the standings and challenge the established hierarchy, reinforcing the Giro’s reputation for unpredictability. With del Toro absent this year, having shifted focus to the Tour de France alongside Tadej Pogačar, attention turns to potential new breakout stars. Davide Piganzoli of Visma-Lease a Bike, who impressed in previous editions and recently stepped up to the WorldTour, could emerge as a strong GC candidate, especially if Vingegaard consolidates an early lead. Meanwhile, Jan Christen of UAE Team Emirates-XRG, a promising young Swiss rider, might also defy expectations in a team lacking a clear leader. Both riders embody the possibility of unexpected success, continuing the tradition of surprise performances at the Giro.