'The Giro d'Italia always produces surprises' – Vincenzo Nibali warns top 2026 contender Jonas Vingegaard about Grand Tour's innate unpredictability

Double Giro d’Italia winner Vincenzo Nibali has issued a cautionary message to Jonas Vingegaard ahead of the 2026 edition of the race, emphasising the inherent unpredictability of the event. Despite Vingegaard being the clear favourite for overall victory in Rome on 31 May, Nibali highlighted that the Danish rider’s lack of prior Giro experience could prove challenging. Drawing on his own extensive knowledge from 11 Giro participations, Nibali stressed that no lead is ever secure, with the race frequently delivering unexpected twists and dramatic shifts in the final stages. Nibali pointed to recent editions as examples of the Giro’s volatility, recalling last year’s dramatic finale where Simon Yates snatched the maglia rosa from Isaac del Toro on the penultimate mountain stage. He also referenced the 2018 race, when Chris Froome overturned Yates’ lead on the same climb, the Colle delle Finestre. Given these precedents, Nibali advised Vingegaard to make an early impact, particularly on decisive climbs such as the Blockhaus, to establish a buffer that his team can then defend. He also noted the added complexity of weather conditions and the rider’s concurrent focus on the Tour de France, suggesting a measured approach might be most effective. While Nibali does not expect Vingegaard to exhibit the same aggressive stage-hunting style as Tadej Pogačar did in the 2024 Giro, he warned that the third week remains critical in determining the final outcome. The former champion emphasised that fatigue plays a significant role late in Grand Tours, and complacency can be costly. This perspective underlines the need for constant vigilance, even with a strong lead, as the race’s final days often prove decisive. With some notable contenders such as João Almeida, Richard Carapaz, and Mikel Landa absent from the start list, attention has turned to Italian hopeful Giulio Pellizzari and former winner Egan Bernal as potential challengers. Nibali praised Pellizzari’s recent progress, including a victory at the Tour of the Alps and a strong showing in last year’s Vuelta, predicting he could aim for a top-three finish. He also acknowledged Bernal’s promising form, suggesting both riders could capitalise on the Giro’s reputation as a proving ground for emerging stars. Ultimately, Nibali’s insights reinforce the Giro d’Italia’s reputation as a race where fortunes can change swiftly and unpredictably, regardless of pre-race favourites. His advice to Vingegaard and commentary on other contenders provide a nuanced preview of what promises to be a fiercely contested and unpredictable Grand Tour in 2026.