'He's given no indication he might lose' – if Tadej Pogačar wins Paris-Roubaix, what can stop him taking all five Monuments?

Tadej Pogačar’s remarkable dominance in the 2024 cycling season has sparked widespread attention, particularly following his victories at Milan-San Remo, Strade Bianche, and the Tour of Flanders. His recent solo win at the Tour of Flanders marked his third triumph in the race, underscoring his status as one of the sport’s most formidable competitors. With Paris-Roubaix looming, the Slovenian rider is poised to challenge for a fourth Monument win this season, edging closer to the unprecedented feat of claiming all five Monuments within a single campaign. Despite his current form, Paris-Roubaix presents a unique challenge for Pogačar due to its flat terrain and notoriously treacherous cobblestones, which favour riders more accustomed to such conditions. The race’s unpredictable nature, with heightened risks of punctures and crashes, could disrupt his bid for a clean sweep. However, if he succeeds in Roubaix, only Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Il Lombardia would remain, two races where Pogačar has already demonstrated considerable prowess with eight combined wins, making him a strong favourite to complete the Monument set. Pogačar’s quest for cycling immortality is not without potential obstacles. His rivals, including Tom Pidcock, Remco Evenepoel, Giulio Ciccone, and his own teammate Isaac del Toro, represent credible threats, especially if Pogačar experiences an off-day. Each of these riders has proven their ability to win major one-day races, and their presence ensures that no victory is guaranteed. The competitive depth of the Classics calendar means Pogačar must maintain peak physical and mental condition to fend off these challengers. Mental and physical resilience will be crucial as the season progresses. Pogačar revealed signs of burnout following last year’s Tour de France, compounded by a knee injury and mental fatigue. Although he rebounded strongly with wins at the European Championships, World Championships, and Lombardia, the relentless pressure of sustaining such a high level of performance could weigh heavily on him. The constant scrutiny and expectations may shift his experience from joy to relief with each success, raising questions about how long he can maintain this extraordinary run. Finally, the unpredictable elements of racing – crashes, mechanical failures, and illness – remain ever-present threats. Even the most meticulous preparation cannot entirely eliminate these risks, as demonstrated by recent incidents involving top riders like Jonas Vingegaard and Wout van Aert. Pogačar himself has endured crashes and injuries, reminding fans that luck plays a role alongside talent and determination. As the season unfolds, these factors will be pivotal in determining whether he can make history by securing all five Monuments in one year.